While you are absolutely correct about the points you made, the war is not dependent on these.
The logic is not military, but from the point of view of a scam artist who has every incentive to continue.
It will not matter if USA forces die by the thousands achieving nothing; it does not matter if the oil hits empty for domestic use. Nothing matters but profits for a very few.
Quite literally the USA could be reduced to sail boats with troops armed with only swords, and be killed out at sea. As long as the USA can bomb in the area, with any aircraft: money can be had
I disagree for the simple reason that Iran can fight back. Iranians have now pushed the US occupation forces all the way back to Jordan, and they’re getting clapped there too, so now they’re pulling even further west to Israel. And Iran has already demonstrated they can hit Israel as well. So, we already see how Iran cleared the shit out of the Gulf over the past couple of month successfully. All the US forward radar stations, staging facilities, warehouses, barracks, are gone now.
There is quite literally no way for the US to mount any sort of an effective ground invasion right now. And they’re afraid to fly jets into Iran as well at this point because Iran has been taking them down at an incredible rate. So, the US is reduced to lobbing missiles into Iran which they have a very limited supply of and cannot make more.
And since Iran is able to hit Israel as well, US assets there will be eliminated the same way they were everywhere else. That’s the reality. Part of the psychological warfare of the empire is to convince people that it’s all powerful and invincible and that it can do whatever it wants. That’s just propaganda you’ve internalized.
I hope the USA forces are moved back to be mostly harmless; but the war will not stop as long as the Trump circles can make huge amounts of money from market manipulations.
And I have leaned to never underestimate these things. There are always missiles to fire too. Even if supplies are low. This war can last until the end of his presidency.
Not only that:
A threat of a nuclear attack, repeated several times, and an actual explosion, will make Trump and his cronies hundreds of billions of dollars if they stretch out the events. He has nothing restraining him.
This crises is still a long time from ending. And be worse later.
Again, explain to me how the US prosecutes this war in material terms though. I’m not debating whether Trump and his circle are making money and might want to keep the war going. I’m talking about the physical reality we live in where you have to produce weapons, establish logistics, supply troops, protect your assets from attack, and so on. How does the US do these things?
I can guarantee you that the US economy will not survive the closure of the Persian Gulf until the end of his presidency.
Badly, and with nuclear threats . But it will do them. I do not dispute it will loose in a conventional way.
I think where we differ is you expect a stop in hostilities after the USA is beaten; and I feel since the reason for this war is only market manipulation; the war will continue, however it can
I mean that’s all been tried already in the first month. The US was seriously considering using nukes, but it wouldn’t solve the problem. And where we differ is that I expect the US economy will crash and the US will have a USSR style collapse. It’s really important to separate the base from the superstructure here. All these things like market manipulation and other machinations require a stable foundation at the bottom, and that’s been eroded for many decades now. And no amount of financial tricks can change the material reality because you can’t just wish things into being in the real world.
I think the USA is remarkably stable; yes there will be vast hardship and many bad things will happen. But I do not see anything to take advantage of this weakness, good or bad.
While you are absolutely correct about the points you made, the war is not dependent on these.
The logic is not military, but from the point of view of a scam artist who has every incentive to continue.
It will not matter if USA forces die by the thousands achieving nothing; it does not matter if the oil hits empty for domestic use. Nothing matters but profits for a very few.
Quite literally the USA could be reduced to sail boats with troops armed with only swords, and be killed out at sea. As long as the USA can bomb in the area, with any aircraft: money can be had
I disagree for the simple reason that Iran can fight back. Iranians have now pushed the US occupation forces all the way back to Jordan, and they’re getting clapped there too, so now they’re pulling even further west to Israel. And Iran has already demonstrated they can hit Israel as well. So, we already see how Iran cleared the shit out of the Gulf over the past couple of month successfully. All the US forward radar stations, staging facilities, warehouses, barracks, are gone now.
There is quite literally no way for the US to mount any sort of an effective ground invasion right now. And they’re afraid to fly jets into Iran as well at this point because Iran has been taking them down at an incredible rate. So, the US is reduced to lobbing missiles into Iran which they have a very limited supply of and cannot make more.
And since Iran is able to hit Israel as well, US assets there will be eliminated the same way they were everywhere else. That’s the reality. Part of the psychological warfare of the empire is to convince people that it’s all powerful and invincible and that it can do whatever it wants. That’s just propaganda you’ve internalized.
You can’t manifest a war of attrition here.
I hope the USA forces are moved back to be mostly harmless; but the war will not stop as long as the Trump circles can make huge amounts of money from market manipulations.
And I have leaned to never underestimate these things. There are always missiles to fire too. Even if supplies are low. This war can last until the end of his presidency.
Not only that:
A threat of a nuclear attack, repeated several times, and an actual explosion, will make Trump and his cronies hundreds of billions of dollars if they stretch out the events. He has nothing restraining him.
This crises is still a long time from ending. And be worse later.
Again, explain to me how the US prosecutes this war in material terms though. I’m not debating whether Trump and his circle are making money and might want to keep the war going. I’m talking about the physical reality we live in where you have to produce weapons, establish logistics, supply troops, protect your assets from attack, and so on. How does the US do these things?
I can guarantee you that the US economy will not survive the closure of the Persian Gulf until the end of his presidency.
Badly, and with nuclear threats . But it will do them. I do not dispute it will loose in a conventional way.
I think where we differ is you expect a stop in hostilities after the USA is beaten; and I feel since the reason for this war is only market manipulation; the war will continue, however it can
I mean that’s all been tried already in the first month. The US was seriously considering using nukes, but it wouldn’t solve the problem. And where we differ is that I expect the US economy will crash and the US will have a USSR style collapse. It’s really important to separate the base from the superstructure here. All these things like market manipulation and other machinations require a stable foundation at the bottom, and that’s been eroded for many decades now. And no amount of financial tricks can change the material reality because you can’t just wish things into being in the real world.
I don’t think he can maintain stability at home through an energy crisis. Oil is going to run out and the country will become ungovernable.
I think the USA is remarkably stable; yes there will be vast hardship and many bad things will happen. But I do not see anything to take advantage of this weakness, good or bad.