Again, explain to me how the US prosecutes this war in material terms though. I’m not debating whether Trump and his circle are making money and might want to keep the war going. I’m talking about the physical reality we live in where you have to produce weapons, establish logistics, supply troops, protect your assets from attack, and so on. How does the US do these things?

I can guarantee you that the US economy will not survive the closure of the Persian Gulf until the end of his presidency.

People really need to stop parroting this line uncritically. The process takes time because even when you’re distilling answers, you still need to actually do reinforcement training on the model. And given that Fable and GPT 5.6 just came out there simply hasn’t been much time to do that. However, models like Kimi also do better than Fable or GPT on a lot of tasks, which means it’s not just distillation but also difference in architecture. You can watch this talk from Kimi founder to see how Kimi was actually trained and why it performs well.

It’s also absolutely hilarious that people think only Chinese companies use distillation, as if Anthropic or OpenAI are above that or something. Not to mention that they basically ignored copyrights on all the data the siphoned and are now crying that people aren’t respecting their terms of use.

The reality is that China tops the world in artificial intelligence publications today. Chinese labs have come up with a bunch of genuine innovations: GRPO, auxiliary loss free MoE load balancing, MLA, muon optimizer, and a bunch of other ones. The Deepseek papers are really well written, this isn’t just sneaking a peek at a peer. Anybody who thinks China is simply distilling glorius American models is not engaging with reality.

Not to mention that US companies models constantly distill each other as Musk was forced to admit under oath. This whole narrative has just been a massive cope.

I disagree for the simple reason that Iran can fight back. Iranians have now pushed the US occupation forces all the way back to Jordan, and they’re getting clapped there too, so now they’re pulling even further west to Israel. And Iran has already demonstrated they can hit Israel as well. So, we already see how Iran cleared the shit out of the Gulf over the past couple of month successfully. All the US forward radar stations, staging facilities, warehouses, barracks, are gone now.

There is quite literally no way for the US to mount any sort of an effective ground invasion right now. And they’re afraid to fly jets into Iran as well at this point because Iran has been taking them down at an incredible rate. So, the US is reduced to lobbing missiles into Iran which they have a very limited supply of and cannot make more.

And since Iran is able to hit Israel as well, US assets there will be eliminated the same way they were everywhere else. That’s the reality. Part of the psychological warfare of the empire is to convince people that it’s all powerful and invincible and that it can do whatever it wants. That’s just propaganda you’ve internalized.

You can’t manifest a war of attrition here.

Yeah, seems like they can delay disclosure here. And yeah Oracle way overinvested in this and hopefully will go under as a result.

I disagree. The US lacks industrial capacity, and it can’t refine rare earths on its own right now. You can’t just snap your fingers and magic these things into existence. You have to establish supply chains, build factories, train workers, and all that is a decades long process. The US being a big country, did have a ton of weapons stockpiled, but a lot of that got used up over the past 4 years in Ukraine. Even large countries can eventually run out of stocks if the outflow exceeds production, which is precisely what has happened to the US now.

The difference with Iran is also that it’s not some small poor country that can’t fight back. This is a whole new type of war for the US where the adversary can hit American assets directly.

I mean sure, they are obviously making money off insider trading, and now even blatantly selling early access to Trump’s tweets. But you can’t just run a war on vibes. If you don’t have fuel, missiles, drones, etc., then your physical capacity to continue the conflict comes to an end, and that’s the problem the US faces here.

exactly

Not really, while it’s supposed to be released on the 27th, you need massive hardware to run it. So, it won’t be useful to individuals. The problem from Anthropic perspective is that other providers will be able to run Kimi at that point. Moonshot has already closed subscriptions because they’re at capacity, so they actually benefit from more companies running and offering Kimi since they can only serve so many requests themselves. On the other hand, Anthropic has to foot the bill for every instance of Claude themselves.

The problem for the US is the logistics. They already spent a lot of stocks in Ukraine before taking on Iran. The industrial capacity in the US is not able to replenish weapons anywhere close to the rate they’re being used. They have to ferry the weapons half way across the world, and they can’t protect their staging bases because Iran can hit them with missiles all across the region. And it’s very difficult to do any sort of a ground invasion of Iran because it’s a huge mountainous country. I simply don’t see how the US can keep the war going realistically here.

On top of all that, the global energy crisis from the closure of Hormuz and now Bab el-Mandeb is hitting the US as well. Gas prices are already back to $4 on average, and it’s the one thing the US public actually responds to politically. The reserves are starting to run dry as well, and when that runs out shit will really hit the fan. And I think that’s actually the biggest lever Iran has here. They have the US by the balls here.

The reason Trump admin wants ICC destroyed is the one I explained above. It was created to prosecute leaders inconvenient for the west and was never meant to be turned on western allies like Israel. But ICC was put in an impossible situation where not going forward with the investigation would completely collapse any credibility it still had. So, after doing much hand wringing they tepidly started the case and at that point their usefulness came to an end.

I feel the opposite actually. All this sort of stuff was always happening. The US has been committing times against humanity since time immemorial. Look at the atrocities in Vietnam, Korea, Afghanistan, Iraq, all over Latin America and Africa. Typically, we wouldn’t even know these things were happening, and people would only discover the extent of the crimes decades later. Now, thanks to the internet, we are seeing it as it happens, and people are reacting. There are protests, there is organizing happening, and people are rejecting the genocide. Even heavily propagandized publics like Americans are now turning on Israel and against the war on Iran. This is all happening faster than before, and the empire is failing militarily while its soft power is collapsing globally.

Yes, there are horrors happening, and the climate crisis is unfolding, but there are also positive things happening in the world. China is seeing the biggest leap in human development in history, and the rest of Asia being pulled along with it. There is a path to a better future here, but we have to fight for it.

Try actually reading what I wrote.

It would be cool in a sense that could could have a robot able to do these things by hand I guess.

Nobody is talking about replacing dishwashers and laundry machines with humanoid robots here.

gonna be awesome

Great, now you need two separate supply chains for each robot, and you have to keep to sets of parts to service them, and then if the thing you were doing changes to a different thing the robot becomes useless.

There are smaller models like Qwen 3.6 27b that can run with as low ast 16gb VRAM. The larger models are largely used either by companies running them on prem, or research institutions.

These are peer reviewed studies in western journals. Perhaps you’re not familiar with the concept of peer review?

Oh no, not the International Colonial Court. The whole reason ICC exists is cause the west didn’t have enough leverage over ICJ, and they decided to make their own kangaroo court to prosecute African leaders they didn’t like.

• https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/40938602/
• https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s13018-024-05118-8?fromPaywallRec=false
• https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s13643-025-02977-y?fromPaywallRec=true
• https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.2147/NDT.S541627
• https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/40971519/
• https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1744388126000186