It’s really getting there, it’s the first local model that really does feel like frontier quality.

🤣

It’s honestly shocking how good Qwen 3.6:27b is, it actually outperforms Qwen 3.5:397b which itself was released only in February. I’m convinced that local models are the future. In a year or two, we’ll probably get to the point where local models are as good as Claude is today, and at that point it kind of doesn’t even really matter if frontier keeps getting better. It’s going to be good enough for vast majority of use cases. On top of that, you can already do a lot with tooling to make the model perform better. This paper is a great example. And I think this is very much an underexplored area. Current agentic harnesses are very primitive in nature, they just give the model some tools to play with, but do little in a way of guidance. ATLAS is a really interesting project in that’s attempting to make a smarter harness, and their results are pretty impressive. If you’re already running Qwen locally, I recommend checking it out.

if somebody already has access to your machine, but doesn’t have root privileges

I mean, literally the first link in my reply is saying that household savings in China are at record high levels. 🤷

When the cost of hosing, the basic necessity for living, drops that is in fact a very good thing. And the record high savings number clearly demonstrates that housing is not a primary investment vehicle for majority of the population. As Xi put it, hosing is for living. This was an intentional policy choice and a correct one.

If you think that Chinese society has been financialized then you’re utterly clueless on the subject and have no business discussing it.

Chinese household savings hit a record high in 2024 https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-jones-bank-earnings-01-12-2024/card/chinese-household-savings-hit-another-record-high-xqyky00IsIe357rtJb4j

90% of families in the country own their home giving China one of the highest home ownership rates in the world. What’s more is that 80% of these homes are owned outright, without mortgages or any other leans. https://www.forbes.com/sites/wadeshepard/2016/03/30/how-people-in-china-afford-their-outrageously-expensive-homes

Student debt in China is virtually non-existent. https://www.forbes.com/sites/jlim/2016/08/29/why-china-doesnt-have-a-student-debt-problem/

It’s pretty clear that there is very little negative impact from housing prices falling on the vast majority of the population. And it’s great news for young people who are moving from countryside to the cities and can now afford cheap housing.

The key reason why 2008 was a clusterfuck was because Obama decided to bail out the bankers and fuck the working class in the process.

It’s a lot cheaper to use hosted models and it’s open source so you can run them in house and customize them any way you like. And in terms of quality, there’s no significant difference. So, everybody is naturally using cheap and open models.

I don’t see any reason why their asset bubble will be crippling. The reason it’s crippling in capitalist economies of the west is cause the government is expected to bail out the investors. In China, they just let these companies fail and then nationalize their assets if needed. If you look at the whole real estate bubble, there was never any crash there precisely because it was a handful of rich investors who ended up eating the loss instead of it being socialized.

and closed source

looking forward to finally having cheap ram and chips

a great explanation from Ted Postol on why the whole idea is fundamentally unworkable https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D9Wzlqh7bIs

Then people who want to make art will continue making art because they have something to communicate, as opposed to with the intent of selling it.

Right, hence there’s no rational reason for Iran not to get nukes now.

Most of it is not all of it, and the fact that there is an actual fork needed shows just how problematic the project is.

It’s also worth noting that Iran could create an atomic weapon (fission based) similar to what the US used on Japan very quickly with their current levels of enrichment. That could be done in around a week, and it does not require being tested ahead of time. It’s a well understood process. With the amounts of uranium Iran is known to have, they could make around 10 atomic weapons. Around three would be enough to annihilate all the major population centres in Israel.

Some of this stuff is hardcoded in as I understand.

I do not believe so.

Well they killed Khamenei who was the one opposed to Iran getting nukes, so I don’t imagine there’s anybody else particularly opposed at this point.

here https://archive.ph/PglA9

I think it’s safe to say that by 2025 there was compromise on the 8xxx or 9xxx Kirin chips out there at that time.

No, it’s not to safe that at all. You’re making a really wild jump here. It’s like saying that if old version of chips iPhone uses were vulnerable we could say that current ones are. You are firmly into speculation territory here. I don’t know why it’s so hard for you to just admit that your thesis is not supported by evidence.

Remember though that I’m not claiming these leaks represent the extent of le capability today, but the extent of their capability then. Over time we can expect (and can see based n the expansion of their claims and the capabilities asserted in their leaks over time!) that they would get access to new methods of compromising phones, we just can’t know the exact extent until something leaks.

Except this equally applies to American phones, and in addition to that, there is a risk of intentional backdoors. So, to reiterate for the tenth time now, American phones are just as likely to be vulnerable to malicious attackers, and on top of that they are produced by companies directly working with US and Israel making it likely they would have intentional backdoors. That’s a strictly worse scenario.

Again, the evidence speaks directly against your analysis. You’re trying to contort the evidence here to fit your narrative instead of looking at it objectively.

Phone security with burgerland characterisitcs lol.