A former Trump Administration economics adviser made a bold prediction when I spoke to him last week: “If the Strait of Hormuz isn’t opened by Labor Day, Trump will have a political problem worse than Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan combined.” Well, that wasn’t the response I was planning on, that’s for sure. While clearly the […]
The article is quite insightful, however I would love to have more meat on the analysis on what’s the exact time frame we have for the negotiation here. Oil supply logistic can’t be switch on and off completely overnight, so that actual deadline for negotiation can be like weeks, months or days away depend on reserves, transportation and production ramp up etc.
From what I’ve read, there’s no way to restore shipments in the foreseeable future even if the war ended tomorrow. Just clearing the backlog of current tankers is going to take a whole year. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/23/dow-ceo-says-clearing-the-strait-of-hormuz-logjam-will-take-almost-a-year.html