Real world measurements of how much extra heat the Earth is trapping are well beyond most climate models. That’s a real problem.

cross-posted from: https://slrpnk.net/post/23918980

In the mid-2000s, the energy imbalance was about 0.6 watts per square metre (W/m2) on average. In recent years, the average was about 1.3 W/m2. **This means the rate at which energy is accumulating near the planet’s surface has doubled. **

FAaFO , we’re in the find out phase.

  • asg101@lemmy.blahaj.zoneEnglish
    15·
    23 hours ago

    The models were deliberately not measuring/predicting ALL the factors they knew were involved. Back in 1998 I asked a Scripps Institute of Oceanography speaker why the models were ignoring the methane/permafrost feedback loop and was told “we decided to focus on other things”… so yeah, inaccurate models give inaccurate predictions. Get used to hearing “it is all happening faster than we expected” from now until we are incinerated.

      • Jim East@slrpnk.netEnglish
        12·
        11 hours ago

        Exactly. No one wants to read that. It’s counter-intuitive, and it goes against the prevailing narrative. But the narrative that the media repeats is based on GWP100 accounting, even though we don’t have 100 years to address climate change. As Hansen and colleagues pointed out, people are not well-informed, and that’s true of the people deciding climate policy as well. Ignorance and denial of the facts will continue to make the situation ever more dire.

        • mojofrododojo@lemmy.worldEnglish
          1·
          50 minutes ago

          the cooling is short term. the heating effects will last centuries.

          I think you’re over invested on this narrative. I have more confidence in NOAA, NASA etc.

          • Jim East@slrpnk.netEnglish
            1·
            12 minutes ago

            the cooling is short term.

            Yes. Exactly. The aerosols have a cooling effect that is fast-acting but short-lasting. Carbon dioxide has a warming effect that is slow-acting but long-lasting. In the long term, the warming effect prevails, but on an annual basis, the cooling effect dominates. We no longer have centuries to address climate change, so considering what the effect of any mitigation strategy will be in the short term is crucial.

  • IninewCrow@lemmy.caEnglish
    28·
    2 days ago

    But the economy is doing good and those little arrows are pointing up and numbers are going up instead of down … that means it’s good.