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Joined 3 years ago
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Cake day: June 14th, 2023

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  • Most of us will probably not live to see the end.

    There is no “end” to live to see.

    things are about to get a whole hell of a lot worse

    I get this line every fucking day on here. It really seems to deny the reality of the post-industrial era. One of shrinking poverty, enormous surpluses, and a backbone of infrastructure that benefits the entire planet.

    Like Kromptkin recognized over a century ago, we have already won as a society and a species. We just need to recognize it and dole out the winnings equitably. What Westerners see as a terrifying decline arrives just as much of the Eastern Bloc and the Global South are finally cashing in. And much of what Westerners dread is this equanimity - this international muscle enjoyed by nations not in the privileged Early Adopter group taking a slice of the pie they thought was always going to be theirs.

    And even then it isn’t really bad news for Westerners in the aggregate, because so much of that pie was going to an elite plutocracy in their own backyards.

    What people in the US and the UK and Germany and Japan are coming to terms with is the dead-weight loss of their own monarchies. Whether they choose to carry this baggage into the 22nd century will determine how they end up living. But the days of colonial extraction are closing. The Free Lunches paid for with the surplus labor of East Asia and West Africa are coming to an end.


  • climate change and pollution are legitimately unfixable problems in my opinion

    The Late Devonian mass extinction was likely caused by the evolution of oxygen producing plants. This fundamentally altered the chemistry of the atmosphere and kicked off the Hangenberg event which is estimated to have killed half of all life in the world’s oceans and around a quarter of all life on dry land.

    Incidentally, the sudden and massive spread of plant-life during this period is responsible for the rapid accrual of fossilized carbon that has become the fuel we’re currently killing one another to secure.

    Everything else could hypothetically be fixed

    We can’t ever really go back. We can update our social responses to climate-wide events. But industrialization isn’t just going to stop happening even if we check our fossil fuel consumption habit. Humanity’s propensity for engineering our surroundings to meet our comfort needs is an unstoppable evolutionary tendency. That’s not something we can ever “fix”. Pandora’s Box was opened millions of years ago. We’re going to have to play this hand out until we hit another ecological balancing point.













  • The planting season is happening right now

    Which means the planting supplies were lined up months ago. This will be a next-year thing if it cannot be corrected for in time.

    The LNG plants are going to take years to repair

    One section of one country’s exports in a global economy. And that’s ignoring the fact that the Straight isn’t shut down for everyone. The IRGC is negotiating passage for a bunch of unaligned states. Pakistan is going to get their fertilizer. China and Russia will get their supplies. Italy and Spain will be fine. It’s the US-Israel block that’s in trouble. And given how much fertilizer the US produces domestically, not even that much trouble.

    However, some developing countries will have genuine shortages.

    The biggest threat to developing countries is western intervention. The famines happening along the Horn of Africa are the direct result of US, Israeli, and Qatari backed military interventions.


  • There’s almost certainly going to be a farming crisis

    Over a long enough timeline, sure.

    We’ve already seen egg prices skyrocket thanks to bird flu and beef production sag due to drought and Texas Cattle Fever. I have no doubt we’ll continue to see agricultural productivity drag as ecological conditions worsen.

    But the fixation on the Straight of Hormuz as a but-for cause to a global agricultural crash jumps the gun for a host of reasons. The most notable of which is that we heavily overproduce agricultural goods and end up subsidizing their wholesale prices. The biggest problems populations have with famine in the modern era is of storage, distribution, and financialization, not raw productivity. A hiccup in the supply of nitrogen rich fertilizer isn’t going to empty anyone’s shelves.