“In case we don’t make a deal, we’ll need it,” Trump has said. Iran remains defiant in the face of ultimatums, pledging unprecedented retaliation to any attack.

Jeremy Scahill and Murtaza Hussain
Feb 18, 2026

A former senior U.S. intelligence official who is an informal advisor to the Trump administration on Middle East policy told Drop Site that, based on his discussions with current officials, he assesses an 80-90% likelihood of U.S. strikes within weeks.

Iran realizes that it is facing an unprecedented threat from the U.S. if a deal that conforms with Trump’s terms is not reached, former Pentagon official Jasmine El-Gamal told Drop Site. “This is not a dress rehearsal,” she said. “This is it. This is not the negotiations of last year or the year before or the year before that. They’re backed into a corner. There’s no off ramp.”

    • barrbaric [he/him]@hexbear.netEnglish
      1·
      15 hours ago

      I think it’s about 50/50. I’m still pretty surprised Venezuela ended up working as well as it did, so that’s a point in its favor, but that doesn’t mean it’ll work every time. Obviously public sentiment is against a ground invasion but when has that stopped anything Trump has done in the past? If his supporters can pardon him being a pedophile they certainly won’t care about another invasion of some distant country.

      If I had to guess I think most likely is they try to do another kidnapping campaign that then fails and turns into a prolonged invasion.