Whatever was said on the day he was moving towards Moscow is what dictated how this all played out, no question.

He completely stopped dead in his tracks and walked away like nothing happened. He was either stupid enough to think all was well and Putin would leave him alone or he thought he could move much more freely than he should have been.

I doubt he was under the complete control of Putin because why waste a missile on a plane when you could toss him out a window or really do whatever you want. He could peel his skin off over the course of months and pay doctors to keep him alive.

I think Prigo was being tracked by Russian intelligence and they waited for a window to take him out and ensure deniability as per usual.

We likely wont know for decades.