Who’s winning POTUS? Will it be called on election night or drawn out? Congress? Etc
Whoever wins … the country will fight about the result for the next four years and completely obscure any reasonable debate or conversation about anything of importance like inflation, wealth inequality, war, the military industrial complex or creeping fascism.
If America doesn’t get its act together during this election … it’s just taking another step towards becoming a failed state and will break apart within the next decade or two. But it won’t be a war or anything too dramatic … it will just look and sound like a never slapfest between shouting children and crying babies who threaten each other but never actually do anything except leave the room with all their toys.
Harris wins comfortably. Lots of lawsuits. Even more violence.
Everyone worth less than 8 figures will lose.
Little else will change. Regardless of figurehead.
I’m in a swing state with an abortion measure on the ballot, and while all the polls claim it’s close, I’m not really sure they are properly accounting for the number of voters that have been activated by the possibility of enshrining pro-choice into the state constitution.
These polling strategies are complex and a lot of thought goes into them, but they rarely can account for uncommon circumstances that increase voter turnout in local or state elections and how that will effect the national election.
While this is entirely personal reexperience bias, I also wonder how effective these polls are at reaching a representative survey group. I know at least on my phone basically all survey calls and texts go to spam and I wonder if older, more conservative voters are getting overrepresented due to their likelihood of not having those kinds of spam filters in place.
Polsters do not call random people. They will call as many people under 30 as they have to to get a representative sample. They have quotas for different parties, age groups, races, etc. And purposefully target the ones they want and verify with the person that demographic info is right while doing the questions. Atleast good scientific polls will do this. Not all polls are created equal.
I’m almost positive Trump wins with how close all the swing states are now and how he’s improving in polling (what the actual fuck people?!) the closer we get to the election.
I’m also almost positive we will not know for sure on election night as I absolutely expect R controlled states to drag their feet and declare “irregularities” that they need to investigate if they don’t like the way things are going.
Global thermonuclear war.
Don’t make me hope.
Would you like to play a game?
Impossible to say but Harris is winning the popular vote for sure. I think however it goes there’s going to be some chaos and violence, I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s blatant attempts by MAGA cultists to sabotage what they can and drag out the vote counting and electoral processes. Its probably going to be a shitshow, and possibly a horrorshow. I don’t expect it to be called on election night unless its a significant and obvious win, which currently seems very unlikely. I would be less surprised if there was a terrorist attack on election night than a clear and obvious conclusion to the election.
Congress I think Dems are likely to outperform, the RNC is no longer what it was and doesn’t have the ground game they used to. All their money and resources have been sucked into the black hole of Trumps campaign.
Harris by a landslide. I’m optimistic and am choosing to have faith in at least some of mankind.
Trump is power hungry while simultaneously old and simple minded. I remember Jan 6. I followed live feeds throughout and immediately after. I watched Trump’s speech, the riot it caused. I watched Ashli Babbitt die on some guy’s go pro.
I keep asking myself how in the hell Trump is even still in the running. What the fuck is wrong with his supporters?
Please get out and vote Harris! Harris is the way forward. She’s not Trump but also SHE IS NOT BIDEN. We need women in power. Look what men have done <gestures broadly>. She happens to be a good one, of course a politician, but she’s won my confidence. Over Trump it was an easy win.
I think she will win but I don’t think it will be a landslide. I hope so, but there’s a lot of stupid Americans that buy into Trump’s crap.
a lot of stupid Americans that buy into Trump’s crap.
True. Unarguably.
Counterpoint though: There are a bunch of Americans that do not. I know many. I know Republicans that are voting Harris.
Thin narrow margin for Harris, several swing states are a new Florida of leaning and ballot counting taking forever. Then right wingers get upset, try to sue as they also then shoot local people for not sieg heiling Trump.
Harris enters office in Jan, makes some statements of how this is horrid, says she’ll do something to help it, but won’t solve the issues that make people consider being fascists who shoot mosques.
From there we’ll see the first 100 days of her term, and if the Senate and House are in favor, we might get some good bills in for a short term solutions to the long term diseases of American necrotic brain damage of conservatism.
For most people, nothing changes. Anti-trans bills are still in place, putting abortion back will be near impossible, and police will still shoot first ask questions second. Maybe some debts are cleared, weed is maybe legalized finally, but the county is the same as it was under Biden.
I think we’ll have a Dem trifecta after election night. I feel the even the nonpartisan polls have overcorrected in favor of Republicans after 2016, and since the overturning of Roe, polls have been underestimating Dem candidates.
According to some of the information in here they seem to be claiming we’re still overestimating Dem performance in presidential elections, but that midterm elections where Trump isn’t on the ballot thing are more accurate. :(
It’s certainly possible. The polls are showing it’s effectively a tossup. But my real theory is that things are fundamentally different after the death of Roe, and that the pollsters really don’t have a way to capture that. Yes, it is a harsh year for the Senate, but there are some dark horse races, namely Texas and Nebraska, that may really surprise us.
I’ve been reading some discussions this week about fake polls claiming Republicans are winning to make Dems think there’s no point in voting. Apparently it was a technique used in a previous recent election? It would explain all the results I’ve seen in the last few days showing them with a strong lead, where a week or two ago other polls showed an even race. Doesn’t really matter though, everyone should remember that the only thing that counts is getting out and casting your vote no matter what the polls might suggest.
There have been a lot of Republican polls posted, part of their “flood the zone” strategy. But I think even the nonpartisan polls are underestimating Dem support a bit.
One can hope, but I suspect nobody will be announcing a victor on Tuesday night.
2016 election night again. Kamala has more votes, loses electoral college
I’m off that week so I predict I’ll be pretty drunk regardless of the result
Kamala will probably win the popular vote, but Trump will take the presidency either through a technical, electoral college win, or a supreme court decision.
If Kamala somehow wins the popular vote and the electoral college, expect more violence. Probably large scale organized violence like we saw in 2021, but also increases in mass shootings and hate crimes. Unless she wins by a landslide (which is very unlikely) the supreme court will likely be involved and the process will drag on into at least January, if not longer. The court will probably find or invent a legal position that gives Trump the presidency anyway.
No matter who is president, Americans living in red states are fucked and any Palestinians living in Gaza are probably going to be killed.
A Trump presidency would be bad for every American and every person living where the US has influence. If the Republicans also take control of congress when they elect Trump, it’s probable that would be the end of the United States as we know it. Trump dismantled a lot of important parts of the administrative state that keeps the gears of government turning during his first presidency. A second round in office, with the other two branches in his pocket, would give him the chance to completely gut the institutions of the united states until the presidency controls everything at the national level.
We would probably see a national abortion ban, a ban on transgender care for adults and minors, the gutting of civil rights protections, most government services privatized, the destruction of countless government agencies and a purge of anyone who might object to any of that.
A Harris presidency would stall some of the efforts of the fascist takeover of the United States but not even a majority of those efforts. Republican controlled states would go into overdrive with their destabilizing agendas. Life will become a lot worse for anyone who isn’t a cishet white man living but has the misfortune of living in Maga country.
The good news is regardless of the outcome Trump won’t be involved in the 2028 presidential election, if we have one. He’s old enough and senile enough that he won’t be in any shape to govern by then so at least we get some new horrors to look forward to.
It’s gonna be a shitshow.
I hope its a 269 to 269 tie cuz that would be funny af
