The Dark Forest Hypothesis. A very compelling answer to the Fermi paradox: If the universe is this vast and life surely must have developed over and over all around us, how come we never found anyone?
If two civilizations ever met, chances are incredibly slim that they were comparably or even similarly developed at this exact moment in time. Think about a modern army traveling back in time 400 years and fighting a group of swordmen with horses; the medieval people would be so overwhelmed it would barely classify as a fight, and that’s just with a few hundred years of difference in technological progress. The random difference between species from different planets and systems would be far, far greater. So if two of them would meet, one of them would very likely be to the other as a god to an ant.
The universe might be brimming with life, but everyone who gets this far must be aware that half of them could wipe you out like ants, the other half could be as indomitable as a god. Cue the dark forest metaphor: There’s prey and there’s predators. We don’t know which one we are in each instance, or how many of each are out there. But how could a first contact protocoll look like in such a competetive (and very likely deadly unfair) environment?
In the dark forest only two types of species can survive: Those that attack. And those who hide.
how many living species have been on earth? Millions probably
How many of those species are intelligent? 1
How long have this intelligent species been around? Nothing at a cosmic timescale.
How many of this intelligent species have become “interstellar”? 0
I don’t think those numbers can be extrapolate, even to the observable universe, to ensure that there are any species capable of interestellar travel around. Living species and even intelligent ones? Maybe. But a long lasting inteligent and interestellar species? We are not an example of that, so we have 0 examples to extrapolate. Only our wishful thinking that humanity will last longer and keep progressing, but that is just a hope, not real yet.
Well there is plenty of intelligent species on the planets, but having the correct evolutionary features of being intelligent and having the capacity to manipulate the environment to an extreme degree is the rare combo. Kinda nit picky but I think its an important one
Some things to consider, a toddler can easily defeat a baby but a 40 and 45 year old are evenly matched. There’s also the question of how much is there to learn, at some point the tech tree is pretty much done - iron is much stronger than brass but maybe light-speed heavy plasma guns are pretty much maxed out and physics simply doesn’t allow more.
This could result in interesting stalemates, a natural limit to the size of conflicts for example if it’s possible to maintain a defensive sphere that can withstand the maximum level of abuse that a circle of attackers can provide - any weapons platform too far back being unable to increase the force applied. We might get technologically perfect civilizations effectively combined to bubbles of influence around their power sources.
What is possible is that at a certain level of tech we discover how to tap into the universal internet, aliens give us the rest of the answers to physics and philosophy then show us how to build VR gear so we can explore the cosmos in perfect VR and no one ever needs to build Dyson spheres or hyperwarp megastructures because we can do anything with a dark matter powered computanium smart phone.
Your last line about hiding reminds me of a peaceful species, the Nox, from Stargate SG-1, who had many abilities one of which was to become invisible and shield their community from detection. But funnily enough, they were so powerful and advanced they may has well have been treated like gods by anyone else.
Space is mind-bogglingly big. Insanely huge. And almost everything is empty. Primitive life (bacteria, fungus,…) might evolve on every other planet, but even mammal like life is probably not that common. Maybe 1 in 10k solar systems has them?
And now my sad hypothesis: FTL drives are simply not possible.
Also, did I mention space is huge? Sending radio signals to a planet 10k ly away is very non trivial. Unless they point a huge dish exactly at us and we point a huce dish exactly to them, we won’t hear each other.
The idea that extraterrestials will watch our TV in 100k years is absurd. (Sorry Lrrrr)
Well obviously our reality isn’t actually paradoxical. We call it that way because it seems like our estimates and conclusions don’t fit our observed reality:
Based on mathematical estimations (e.g. the Drake equation) it’s pretty unlikely that we’re the only intelligent species in our galaxy. So where is everyone?
Every answer to that question tries to resolve the seeming paradox. And your answer specifically isn’t unheard of either, it’s called the economic explanation. Throwing satellites out is obviously possible, we’ve done it and Voyager 1 will reach another solar system in roughly 30,000 years. So it’s technically possible, just very uneconomic.
The Dark Forest Hypothesis. A very compelling answer to the Fermi paradox: If the universe is this vast and life surely must have developed over and over all around us, how come we never found anyone?
If two civilizations ever met, chances are incredibly slim that they were comparably or even similarly developed at this exact moment in time. Think about a modern army traveling back in time 400 years and fighting a group of swordmen with horses; the medieval people would be so overwhelmed it would barely classify as a fight, and that’s just with a few hundred years of difference in technological progress. The random difference between species from different planets and systems would be far, far greater. So if two of them would meet, one of them would very likely be to the other as a god to an ant.
The universe might be brimming with life, but everyone who gets this far must be aware that half of them could wipe you out like ants, the other half could be as indomitable as a god. Cue the dark forest metaphor: There’s prey and there’s predators. We don’t know which one we are in each instance, or how many of each are out there. But how could a first contact protocoll look like in such a competetive (and very likely deadly unfair) environment?
In the dark forest only two types of species can survive: Those that attack. And those who hide.
I just think:
how many living species have been on earth? Millions probably
How many of those species are intelligent? 1
How long have this intelligent species been around? Nothing at a cosmic timescale.
How many of this intelligent species have become “interstellar”? 0
I don’t think those numbers can be extrapolate, even to the observable universe, to ensure that there are any species capable of interestellar travel around. Living species and even intelligent ones? Maybe. But a long lasting inteligent and interestellar species? We are not an example of that, so we have 0 examples to extrapolate. Only our wishful thinking that humanity will last longer and keep progressing, but that is just a hope, not real yet.
Well there is plenty of intelligent species on the planets, but having the correct evolutionary features of being intelligent and having the capacity to manipulate the environment to an extreme degree is the rare combo. Kinda nit picky but I think its an important one
Very true. Also in itself kinda creepy.
This is a fascinating one.
Some things to consider, a toddler can easily defeat a baby but a 40 and 45 year old are evenly matched. There’s also the question of how much is there to learn, at some point the tech tree is pretty much done - iron is much stronger than brass but maybe light-speed heavy plasma guns are pretty much maxed out and physics simply doesn’t allow more.
This could result in interesting stalemates, a natural limit to the size of conflicts for example if it’s possible to maintain a defensive sphere that can withstand the maximum level of abuse that a circle of attackers can provide - any weapons platform too far back being unable to increase the force applied. We might get technologically perfect civilizations effectively combined to bubbles of influence around their power sources.
What is possible is that at a certain level of tech we discover how to tap into the universal internet, aliens give us the rest of the answers to physics and philosophy then show us how to build VR gear so we can explore the cosmos in perfect VR and no one ever needs to build Dyson spheres or hyperwarp megastructures because we can do anything with a dark matter powered computanium smart phone.
Give it time, we started emitting radio 80 years ago. When aliens look our way, they probably still see the dinosaurs or something.
Your last line about hiding reminds me of a peaceful species, the Nox, from Stargate SG-1, who had many abilities one of which was to become invisible and shield their community from detection. But funnily enough, they were so powerful and advanced they may has well have been treated like gods by anyone else.
I never understood why Fermi should be a paradox.
Space is mind-bogglingly big. Insanely huge. And almost everything is empty. Primitive life (bacteria, fungus,…) might evolve on every other planet, but even mammal like life is probably not that common. Maybe 1 in 10k solar systems has them?
And now my sad hypothesis: FTL drives are simply not possible.
Also, did I mention space is huge? Sending radio signals to a planet 10k ly away is very non trivial. Unless they point a huge dish exactly at us and we point a huce dish exactly to them, we won’t hear each other.
The idea that extraterrestials will watch our TV in 100k years is absurd. (Sorry Lrrrr)
Well obviously our reality isn’t actually paradoxical. We call it that way because it seems like our estimates and conclusions don’t fit our observed reality:
Based on mathematical estimations (e.g. the Drake equation) it’s pretty unlikely that we’re the only intelligent species in our galaxy. So where is everyone?
Every answer to that question tries to resolve the seeming paradox. And your answer specifically isn’t unheard of either, it’s called the economic explanation. Throwing satellites out is obviously possible, we’ve done it and Voyager 1 will reach another solar system in roughly 30,000 years. So it’s technically possible, just very uneconomic.